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Two more months and then we'll know what the beast looks like
Until the announcement on July 17th of the 2nd round of telecom sector liberalisation, we are like the people in this picture, only able to guess at the parts of the elephant. We have already seen what competition in mobile means, and on that day, we will be given the road map for how Internet will advance in Fiji.
So, as we attempt to piece together what the elephant looks like, let’s take a look at what Dionisia has for us over at FijiLive:
The deregulation of international access, scheduled for July 17 this year, is phase two of the process. It will mean that any domestic reseller of telecommunication services may directly source its international bandwidth needs without going through FINTEL, as was previously the case.
Her article was very informative and helps us get a better understanding of how FINTEL is positioning itself with regard to future competition and government regulation. By getting out ahead of government calls for liberalisation of the international gateway they hope to avoid more serious measures that government might push.
Telstra has received clear signal of change in policy direction from Canberra
Last week, an unprecedented $43 billion plan to build a next-generation national fibre network was announced by the Australian Government. The announcement is a change in direction by the Government, which is now seeking a public-private partnership to deploy a fibre-to-the-home network covering 90% of Australians in the next eight years. The paper also outlines new measures the Government and regulatory bodies will pursue to foster greater competition. The move has great implications for incumbent operator, Telstra, now facing a very different competition landscape and downward pressure on its stock price.
A key new addition to the toolkit of regulators is functional separation, where the incumbent operator (owner of the network) is required to create a separate network unit which handles essential network services to other providers and to the incumbent’s own retail units at the same prices and using the same non-price terms and conditions and processes.
Growing demand for traffic in South Pacific, means that infrastructure needs have to be re-examined. You can read from a sample of previous Coconut Wireless posts on the issue here:
- update on the SPIN cable project
- upgrades to the Southern Cross Cable Network
- developments with the American Samoa-Hawaii (ASH) cable
- launch of the Gondwana cable connecting New Caledonia – Sydney
The literature on Internet affordability and accessibility in the Pacific is pretty clear on the explosive growth in IP traffic the region is set to undergo. But behind a statement like “demand for internet access will be 192% greater in the Solomons Island” is a more complicated picture of demand for internet services in the islands.
Consider the following chart of international voice calls from countries in the region:
This graph is from a report titled “Satellite services in the Pacific” compiled by Network Strategies, a consulting firm (Download the PDF of the full report here). It is a representation of the number of minutes used by people in the Pacific making international phone calls. Note the general upward trend, showing a growing demand for international service.
Since 2004, Fiji’s outgoing minutes have been in decline, something that can be attributed entirely to the proliferation of VOIP services like Skype.
What would this graph look like if projected out to 2009? The general decline in minutes used over traditional land-lines would continue downward as more voice traffic in Pacific countries is diverted the Internet.
As more users become fluent with VOIP offerings, telecom operators will face the same fate as those in other parts of the world:
Thanks to European broadband service providers treating voice as a loss leader to attract triple-play customers, local voice has become almost free in Europe, according to research conducted by Telegeography, a division of market research firm PriMetrica.
Source: GigaOM “In Europe, VOIP Grows and Grows“
Triple play refers to the provisioning of telephone service, broadband, and television over one network by a single provider. As landlines become less profitable for telecoms in Fiji, the providers will inevitably have to move toward providing voice services in the manner described above, as a loss leader for broadband internet and TV. Yet another reason to make sure regulatory policies ensure a competitive environment.
If this makes no sense to you yet, don’t worry as it’s causing sleepless nights for our existing telecoms. Right now, in high-rise offices all over capitals in the Pacific, people with Accounting degrees are examining spreadsheets very closely trying to figure what these shifts in traffic mean for future profitability.
Yet, no discussion of future possibilities for retail services and offerings can proceed without assessing the underlying need for cheaper backhaul facilities. The chart below is taken from a World Bank report (Download the PDF of the full report here):
Proposed Cable projects. click image to view in Hi-res. (Source: World Bank)
The chart shows three types of proposed networks: regional, sub-regional, and point-to-point. Point-to-point refers to connecting two countries directly. The World Bank does not have recommendations for many projects of these types, tending to throw its support for projects which solve the connectivity issue at the regional level. The few instances where they support sub-regional projects are for the Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Samoa to connect to the infrastructure in Fiji (Southern Cross Cable Network).
By far, the most promising project is the regional New Caledonia to French Polynesia project. Trying to connect the two French territories to each other would present opportunities for many other Pacific Island countries to jump onto a project which could bring significant additional bandwidth capability. But, with an estimated price tag of USD $250 million, this project will be a long time in getting past the planning stages (a big reason to hope for the success of efforts like O3B Networks).
The same World Bank report shows how countries in the region could share in the costs of deploying the NCFP cable:
NCFP costs and benefits shared by countries in the region. Click image to view in Hi-Res (Source: World Bank)
Under this scenario, all participant countries could benefit and help help shoulder the costs of the project. To become reality, significant policy and regulatory hurdles would have to be overcome to ensure all participant countries receive access to the cable.
With numerous VOIP solutions out there, it’s impossible for even large publishers like PC Magazine or CNet to review and be knowledgeable of all of them. The free-for-all atmosphere means an ever-shifting landscape of offerings.
The Magic Jack retails for $40 USD and requires a $20 USD annual service agreement
This past weekend, I received a call on my mobile phone and saw a phone number from a 312 area code (Chicago, IL) trying to reach me.
I picked up the phone call and found it was none other than a CW tipster and early supporter, calling me from Fiji.
Just like that, the Coconut Wireless had been MagicJacked!
A free phone call between a MagicJack-powered PC in Fiji and a mobile phone in the United States, shows the power that VOIP offers to the consumer. Read the PC Magazine review here.
For over a year, late-night television in the United States have featured infomercials and advertisements for a product called MagicJack. I never paid any attention to it till now.
The MagicJack at work
The device retails for $40USD and the cost of annual service is $20USD. Setup and configuration is straightforward and the registration process allows you to register a US phone number to make and receive phone calls. I am not sure how this would work for those living outside the United States.
The device connects to your PC via a USB 2.0 port. You can plug in any phone to the device.
When disruptive technologies are put in the hands of users, they will often surpass expectations with ingenious ways of finding applications for the technology.
MagicJack was intended as a service to offer almost free domestic calling to anyone in the US. Since, its only requirement is a broadband connection, it is possible to use the device to make and receive calls to and from any number in North America.
If you have business or relatives in North America, it may be well worth it to you to try this device.
The philosophy of this site has always been that empowered users will seek out solutions for themselves.
On Wednesday, I had the chance to speak with representatives of O3b Networks via conference call. I talked to Nara Sihavong who is their Regional Director of Sales, Asia-Pacific. Also on the call were John Dick, from Regional Sales and Mike Serrano, Director of Marketing. Together, they updated me on what has been going on at O3b since the launch of operations in Sept. ‘08. They also briefed me on the company’s plans in the Pacific.
ITU Ministerial Forum in Tonga, Feb 17-20: "Connecting the Unconnected"
O3b launched operations in September of 2008 with Google, HSBC, and Liberty Global as primary investors. Initial focus of the company’s sales and marketing efforts has been on African countries. However, O3b’s overarching mission is to provide improved connectivity for emerging economies, the “other 3 billion”. They have been quick out of the gate, signing agreements with several operators & ISPs, including the Microcom, the largest ISP in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Coconut Wireless has covered O3b Networks here, here, and here. O3b’s presence at PTC ‘09 in Honolulu was the kick-off of its efforts in the Pacific. It was at PTC ‘09 where they revealed details of their plans to offer improved connectivity to the Pacfic Islands.
The recent ITU meeting in Tonga was part of this effort and the O3b team met with Ministerial level delegates to pave the way for further talks in Pacific Island nations. Nara then spent a week in Fiji, where he held meetings and discussions with the telecom operators.
He reports an enthusiastic response from the operators and adds that he sees the business development units within these companies moving with an urgency that reveals their understanding of what increased competition means for market dynamics.
Nara Sihavong
O3b also met with the members of the Communication Ministry and outlined to them the kind of support and guarantees government would have to come forward with in order to get services underway in Fiji. For ministers in the region, O3b offers a new pathway to building up ICT sectors which can become generators of employment and income.
As a provider of backhaul service, O3b would not provide direct service to customers in the region. Instead, they are looking for agreements with ILECs, CLECs, mobile providers and ISPs. For remote areas not currently served, O3b would be interested in talking to entrepreneurs interesting in building ISPs.
When agreements are in place, O3b will work with existing operators in Fiji, like FINTEL, Vodafone, TFL, and Digicel. O3b is also in similar discussion with operators in other Pacific countries. Any provider who signs on with O3b gains superior quality connectivity to the international infrastructure, something that is only possible now through two very expensive options, the Southern Cross Cable Network or GEO satellite service providers.
With O3b, at the national level, governments do not have to wait for undersea cables. A look at the following map of the region will show how O3b is mapping all the islands for service:
Proposed coverage for Pacific Islands (Please click image to view in Hi-res)
They can leap frog that process that can take years, take a look at what O3b can do and create a congruent domestic and international network to inter-connect all their remote islands:
How O3b works: A diagram of QuickStart and QuickVar Solutions
O3b would provide the backhaul service and the telecoms would deploy wireless (WiMAX or LTE) or cable networks to reach customers. Signing service agreements with O3b would mean realizing huge cost savings, which hopefully is the incentive that the incumbent telecom operators need to ensure wider propagation of services at much lower costs.
View Slideshow with company info:
PowerPoint available for download here (approx. 3 MB)
3.5m fixed terminal for Tier 1 service
The savings are significant. Telecoms in the Pacific currently pay in the range of $3,000-$6,000/mbps, where O3b can provide superior service at a fraction of that cost: $600/mbps for QuickStart.
O3b is a Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) operator meaning much smaller satellite dishes are required. This is because the satellites will orbit about 8,000 km above earth, as opposed to the 36,000 km of existing Geostationary (GEO) platforms. This is an important distinction because it means significantly lower costs for ground equipment. The shorter distance that the signal has to travel to reach a satellite in MEO orbit is what allows for low-latency connections. As MEO technology becomes more widespread and cheaper, even greater savings could be realized. Learn more about what MEO and GEO mean.
A large part of our conversation revolved around the regulatory picture in the S. Pacific. With the ADB and World Bank pushing for liberalization of telecommunications in the region, there is for the first time considerable pressure to change the status quo, which has protected monopolies and the high prices and poor service they offer.
According to Nara, O3b’s technology offering necessitates a re-examination of plans for coping with future infrastructure needs. This moment presents an opportunity for telecom operators, regulatory bodies, and those at the ministerial level to look at their long-term planning and reformulate their outlook for the next 5 and 10 years.
O3b Service can help ISPs and mobile providers address their needs
There are early signs of misunderstandings that can take place. As the people who have to ensure successful implementation of liberalization efforts, regulatory bodies have a key role to play. In Papua new Guinea, regulators require fees for licensing satellite operators to provide service. This is a deviation from normal practice and could be a hindrance to O3b’s entrance into the PNG market.
The challenge is on for all stakeholders in the Pacific to be creative in getting the most out of this technology. In my early posts on Ensuring Universal Access (Part I, Part II), I outlined how next generation wireless deployments should allow for ‘piggybacking’ for schools and emergency services. For this to be realized, this is something that regulators need to demand of operators.
John remarked that the game-changing technology is an example of how innovation is being used to overcome a real problem. Low-cost satellite offers the potential to deploy ubiquitous Internet coverage, dramatically altering the landscape of what is possible for the economies of these countries. This is something not true of submarine cable projects, which can languish on the drawing board for years without any real progress.
For many Pacific countries who have been contemplating spending many millions to get undersea fiber connections , the dream of high-speed connectivity is a step closer to reality. With O3b, they can pursue fiber-like connectivity at a fraction of the cost, allowing them to invest in other projects critical to social and economic development.
Getting from here, to where we need to be...
The Feb/March edition of the journal Telecommunications Policy contains an article titled “Does smallness affect the success of liberalization? The case of Cyprus“. The article is very insightful in outlining why we have to pay attention to regulation. The liberalization process is complex and attempting to merely duplicate solutions from other countries without careful consideration of local conditions, will not result in desired outcomes:
The examination of liberalization in Cyprus shows that despite the NRA enforcing all regulatory measures recommended by the EU model, a very strong incumbent provider dominates in all markets. The progress of competition has been sluggish and new entrants, struggling for survival, have acquired small market shares.
The following table, from the same paper illustrates just what is meant by trying to avoid ‘one-size-fits-all’ types of policies. It’s packed with information, so you should try to take a moment to understand it. Key facts contained are the year in which liberalization started in a particular country, penetration rates for Internet under monopoly and then under competition, the number of operators in a country, and the incumbent operators share of the market 4 years after the start of the liberalization process.
(If above information is difficult to read, please click to open larger image)
The author is drawing comparison between large economies and small ones. The data reveals that small countries, under competition, did not manage to achieve high levels of internet penetration and incumbent operators managed to hold onto a large portion of the market share.
Just some things to think about as we get underway with our own efforts at liberalizing the telecommunications sector.
For several weeks now, I have been parsing through websites and academic papers trying to understand the available literature 
on telecommunication policy. An earlier post on O3b referenced the International Telecommunication Union meeting in Tonga.
One of the outcomes from this meeting was a direction for ‘officials to work toward establishing a shared regulator resource centre at the earliest possible date.’
From its founding, this has been exactly the goal for this blog, to be a resource for everyone in the region to better understand how ICT and telecommunications liberalization impacts the lives of those living in the Pacific.
In true Pacific fashion, island nations have shown up late for the telecommunications liberalization party. This is regrettable, but it presents us with the opportunity to study how liberalization has fared in other countries in the world. In the literature on development, this is referred to as the benefit of being a latecomer.
Of course, it’s only a benefit if we learn the right lessons, make the appropriate comparisons, and take the necessary steps to avoid pitfalls faced by other nations who attempted to bring about change to their telecommunications sector.
Read about telecommunications policy and failures of liberalization in South Africa, as well as challenges faced by small economies, particularly relevant for the small island states of the Pacific.
There is an overwhelming amount of information that is available on this topic from online sources.
Click above image to view table of contents for ITU's ICT Regulation Toolkit
The plan is to have this become the first in a series of posts that will examine issues of telecommunications policy pertaining to liberalization and regulation.
To get a better understanding, it’s helpful for us to develop a road map to better put into perspective the many issues of concern. For our needs, the framework of analysis is offered in Section 2.4 of the ICT Regulation Toolkit, which outlines responsibilities of a good regulatory body:
- implementating the authorization framework that provides opportunities for new companies and investors to establish ICT businesses. Simple authorization procedures tend to maximize new entry (see Module 3);
- regulating competition (including tariffs) involving the effective enforcement of fair and equitable competitive market principles, restraining the power of dominant suppliers and leveling the playing field for new entrants (see Module 2);
- interconnecting networks and facilities. Normally transparent rules are established for interconnecting all types of traditional and new communications networks and associated cost-based payments (see Module 2)
- implementing universal service/access mechanisms to ensure the widespread (and affordable) diffusion of ICT (see Module 4);
- managing the radio spectrum effectively to facilitate new entrants and new technologies, which is particularly relevant to new broadband wireless opportunities such as Wi-Fi and WiMAX (see Module 5); and
- minimizing the burden and costs of regulation and contract enforcement (see Module 7)
Future posts on policy will be oriented around these modules. You can also expect more emphasis on academic articles that focus on small economies, since that is where the most apt comparisons to Pacific nations can be made.
It seems like just the other day that I was writing about Digicel’s arrival in Fiji. 
Well, it’s safe to say that their impact has been immediate and significant.
Earlier reports confirm what everyone in Fiji already knows about mobile calling rates. Digicel entered the market in October of 2008 and since that time incumbent provider Vodafone has slashed rates by 44% to hold on to market share.
Peak rates for Vodafone “on-net” calls have been dropped from 27 cents a unit to 15 cents a unit or 30 cents a minute in comparison to 54 cents previously. Off peak rates have been slashed from 18 cents a unit to 12 cents a unit or 24 cents a minute. SMS charges have been dropped by 50 per cent to 10 cents per txt compared to 20 cents earlier.
As these two companies battle it out, it should be consumers who rejoice. 
Real Competition in the mobile sector will mean continued improvements in these areas:
- improvements in call quality
- expanded coverage areas
- responsive customer support
- more frequent releases of services and features in-demand with customers
And really, the list of benefits is far too extensive to be detailed here. The real measure of the success of Digicel’s entry into the market will be made several years down the road.
Digicel has built its reputation on monopoly-busting in small markets all over the Caribbean and the Pacific and there’s nothing to indicate that they will stray from their credo as they expand in Fiji.
Announcement of their donation of $500,000 to assist victims of the recent floods in Fiji, as well as their plans to build a green-powered mobile network in Vanuatu show Digicel’s comittment to being a genuine partner in the Pacific.
Start-up satellite broadband provider O3b Networks expects to unveil an initial pricing plan for Pacific islands next week. Greg Wyler, CEO, plans to announce a megabit-per-second pricing structure for Pacific Island countries at a meeting of the International Telecommunication Union from Feb 17-20, in Tonga:
Mr Wyler said the company’s preliminary assessment is that an island would pay around US$600 per megabit per second of throughput, plus an initial activation fee for the ground equipment of about US$350,000, for orders placed by May 2009. (Source: Pacnews)
I had the good fortune to see Greg Wyler, CEO of O3b, speak at PTC ‘09. He described O3b’s plan for the Pacific Islands and it sounded pretty awesome as anyone addressing the needs of the Pacific Islands, is instantly my hero.
Greg Wyler at PTC '09 in Honolulu
O3b arrives on the scene just as other satellite companies like Intelsat are raising prices in the Pacific claiming the only alternative is stopping service to the islands.
Any news from O3b is good news for the Pacific islands. Here’s some details on the satellites and the scheduled 2010 launch:
… based in the British tax haven Jersey Channel Islands, has contracted with manufacturer Thales Alenia Space of France and Italy to build an initial eight 700-kilogram O3b satellites to be launched together in late 2010 aboard a Sea Launch Co. rocket.
Launching satellites is no small task and there have been several quite prominent failures at what O3b is attempting to accomplish. With the way technology is becoming so widespread in the world, the timing could be right for O3b.
We can only hold our breath in anticipation of the launch of the satellites in the latter half of 2010. On behalf of everyone who recognizes that O3b’s success means real competition for internet services in Fiji, we wish them well!
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