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There will be 250 million mobile Internet subscribers by the end of 2009. A post on GigaOm goes into great depth about the state of wireless broadband. By September of this year EMEA (Europe, M. East, Africa) will have 60 million subscribers, North America 37 million, and Asia-Pacific will have 56 million mobile broadband users. All indicative of the reality that mobile broadband will be a key gateway for users to get onto the Internet.

These are all signs that the emerging wireless broadband network — regardless of the networking protocol is good for innovators and innovation. More entrepreneurs should be thinking about leveraging this wireless broadband platform in a more meaningful fashion. In developing and emerging markets, this could see technology helping people overcome everyday struggles and generate whole new sectors to economies.

The graphic below helps put the emergence of mobile broadband in context:

wireline vs. mobile

Click to view in High-Resolution

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Sheep on Phone (Color)A new market research report for the telecoms sector in New Zealand has been released on the website companiesandmarkets.com. The title for the publication is “2009 New Zealand – Telecoms and Overview & Analysis” and the executive summary can be found here.

The report provides a great deal of insight into the telecoms sector in New Zealand. It finds that the total New Zealand market grew by 2% to $7.1 billion for the year up to June 2008. BuddeComm predicts that the total New Zealand telco market will grow around 2.3% in 2008/09 and 3.5% in 2009/10, although these growth rates could be up to 1% lower, depending on the severity of the global financial crisis.

New Zealand and the United Kingdom are the only countries in the world that have enacted functional separation as a regulatory tool. Citing many of the same reasons given on this site, the report states emphatically that implementation of this regulatory measure has benefitted users in New Zealand tremendously:

Even Telecom New Zealand has itself admitted that functional separation has already begun to stimulate competition in New Zealand. Existing participants now have the opportunity to extend their activities, and additional competitors now have more opportunity to enter the market which has previously been dominated far too much by Telecom. Smaller competitors now have more attractive wholesale arrangements coming into place and this will put further pressure on prices, which have historically been far too high due to Telecom’s overwhelming market dominance.

In Fiji, it’s FINTEL’s dominance over the international gateway that most closely resembles our New Zealand counterparts. The first stages of sharing under liberalisation are being implemented. However, until the prescription of functional separation is handed down from regulators, we will not reap the kind of benefit that New Zealand is experiencing now. Interestingly, even the incumbent operator in NZ acknowledges that the regulatory measure has been a positive development. How long before we see these steps being taken in Fiji?

 

Regulators put telcos under the lens

Regulators more willing to put telcos under the lens

Presently attempting to work through a large backlog of articles. The article that is the basis of this post continues to keep the spotlight on the regulatory changes being proposed for Telstra. Australia’s incumbent operator is squarely in the sights of Australian regulators:

Australia’s competition watchdog said imposing a tough structural separation regime on Telstra Corp. (TLS.AU) is the only way to guarantee an equal playing field during the transition to a planned multibillion dollar national broadband network but the company argues there’s no need for such a move.

This calls for looking at regulatory issues comes while Australia attempts to roll out the $43 billion NBN:

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top_halfmastIn an earlier post, Unwired Fiji was praised for deploying a next-generation WiMAX network. A loyal reader forwarded me me an email sent out by Unwired that details new services that take advantage of their new network infrastructure and this news should be greeted with much less enthusiasm. Unwired would have benefitted from waiting for the July 17th announcement of the liberalisation of access to the international gateway to  go to their customers with much more attractive pricing terms.

The company has unveiled two new service offerings for business users. Axxcess is a shared solution aimed at small and medium-scale enterprises. SkyFibre is a dedicated option for larger corporate outfits.

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Unwired Fiji has selected Motorola to deploy its next-generation WiMAX network in Fiji. A very positive development. Coming in front of the July 17th announcement, it’s proof that operators are willing to invest in considerable upgrades that expand network coverage and increase performance.

From Communications Direct:

Motorola announced today that it has been selected by Uniwired Fiji to design and deploy an end-to-end 8012.16e-based WiMAX network to upgrade and provide increased capacity to the operator’s existing network for expansion of network coverage and capacity.

In the Philippines, The National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) has allowed Globe Telecom to ‘make permanent its mobile internet service for post-paid subscribers’. The company offers monthly subscriptions starting at PHP149 (USD3.1), giving ten hours of mobile internet. A low-priced introductory service option is critical for expanding Internet usage in the population.

Governments are reassessing regulations toward telecommunications as they look for investment in next-generation wireless networks. In Vietnam, significant reforms are being put in place, including provisions for foreign-ownership of network infrastructure. According to a  Telegeography update:

… the country’s draft Bill of Law on Telecommunication has been put forward for discussion at the National Assembly Steering Committee. If passed, the bill will allow private companies to build network infrastructure for the first time and will open up the telecoms market to foreign investors, as part of Vietnam’s commitment to the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

In the Asia-Pacific region, there’s a great deal of activity that impacts the deployment of wireless networks and services. Again we see governments taking steps to change policies and increase investment in next-generation networks.  A nation like Vietnam opening itself up to outside investment in telecom infrastructure is a sign of how old attitudes  are making way for new pragmatism.

We'll have to wait

Two more months and then we'll know what the beast looks like

Until the announcement on July 17th of the 2nd round of telecom sector liberalisation, we are like the people in this picture, only able to  guess at the parts of the elephant. We have already seen what competition in mobile means, and on that day, we will be given the road map for how Internet will advance in Fiji.

So, as we attempt to piece together what the elephant looks like, let’s take a look at what Dionisia has for us over at FijiLive:

The deregulation of international access, scheduled for July 17 this year, is phase two of the process. It will mean that any domestic reseller of telecommunication services may directly source its international bandwidth needs without going through FINTEL, as was previously the case.

Her article was very informative and helps us get a better understanding of how FINTEL is positioning itself with regard to future competition and government regulation.  By getting out ahead of government calls for liberalisation of the international gateway they hope to avoid more serious measures that government might push.

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Alcatel-Lucent and Tatung University have announced the launch of Taiwan’s first WiMAX 16e campus network. The project will foster research and innovation in wireless broadband technologies.

Such deployments are crucial to rolling out commercial services:

“Before deploying WiMAX application services in the commercial market, field testing and evaluation are crucial. Tatung University’s network not only proves WiMAX’s capabilities in real life but also provides a wealth of data as well as an R&D environment for WiMAX developers and research institutes,” said C.Y. Hsu, the leader of Tatung University’s Wireless Broadband Laboratory.

Tatung Infocomm, a local operator, seeks to launch it’s commercial WiMAX offering in the near future. Everyone involved  agree on what is possible over WiMAX:

Tatung University and Alcatel-Lucent are also demonstrating WiMAX technology’s maturity through various innovative, state-of-the-art WiMAX application services, including smart metering, digital video surveillance systems, IPTV, PS3 gaming , IMS, and high-speed video streaming.

The maturing of WiMAX as a technology should mean greater consideration for deployment from operators in the Pacific.

Since yesterday, a flurry of blog posts and emails  have been circulating claiming the government is interfering in the operations of the telecommunications companies. Bloggers have jumped on these unsubstantiated rumors and reprinted the original post, helping to give credibility to untrue claims.

In response Vodafone CEO, Aslam Khan, has been sending out emails following a press release to make it clear to journalists that there has been no government interference:

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Probably the the greatest honor for this site up to this point would be having my content published in the regional Islands Business magazine.  My interview with Nara Sihavong of O3B Networks was included in the April edition of the magazine.  Link to Islands Business article here.

After my family moved away from Fiji when I was young, my uncle  would regularly send us copies of Islands Business.  As a youngster, I would read these magazines from end-to-end.  For these sentimental reasons, being included in the magazine means a great deal to me.

I am taking this opportunity to thank Dionisia Tabureguci and Laisa Taga, Editor at Islands Business.

Emerging economies face all sorts of opportunities to leapfrog entire stages of economic development.  Mobile phone usage is leading to the demise of wired line service.  Similarly, wireless broadband service offers the same potential for disruptive impact.  Regulatory bodies must stay on top of these developments to ensure a variety of outcomes:

  • investment in next-generation network infrastructure and services
  • promoting competition in services
  • ensuring the technology is propagated as widely as possible

For Fiji, we can pretty safely say that wireless networks will deliver broadband Internet in the future.  This is because the country lacks the population density to justify the expenditure in fiber-optic cable, the new standard in wired internet service.  As wireless technologies close the performance gap and become cheaper from wider use, they will become more viable.

With regular Internet usage estimated at less than 5% of the population, the challenge is to create wireless networks that cover as much of the population as possible, and have service plans that are within reach of the average person.

Here is a comparison of WiMAX and LTE, competing standards for 4G or next-generation networks:

So despite their differences in origin and current availability, the two siblings may grow closer with time, especially as newer iterations on the standard emerge. Wright said 85 percent of the work and technology for WiMax equipment will be reused in Motorola’s LTE equipment designs. The true battle isn’t between the competing 4G networks, but between wireless and wired broadband.

“The performance and capabilities of WiMax and LTE will only get better over time, and will represent a direct competitive threat to the existing broadband services,” Wright says. “People will make a choice, just like today when people are disconnecting their wired lines for voice.”

This should help put the competing standards into perspective.  In Fiji, the WiMAX providers are Kidanet and Unwired.  Since LTE is very closely affiliated with mobile phone operators and manufacturers, Digicel and Vodafone are in that camp.

Understanding what these standards mean for each other, as well as to wired and wireless broadband connections will be a key part of how regulators ensure sufficient competition to spur investment in the technology and guarantee service to as wide a segment of the population.  The blurring of the lines between mobile and mobile Internet is also something regulators need to be aware of.

Deploying these networks is an expensive and as yet, untested proposition.  WiMAX is available now and has been successfully tested and deployed in many locations.  You can read about a pilot project in Spain, testing capabilities of the latest generation WiMAX Rev-e standard. LTE is undergoing early field testing by Fujitsu in Japan.

Both WiMAX and LTE are IP-based networks, which poses a real test for mobile phone operators as they figure out how to handle the switching technology to best deal with voice as well as data.  That is part of the reason why LTE deployment is not expected to arrive until 2012.

In earlier posts, I discussed how sharing infrastructure in a public-private partnership arrangement might be the best way to guarantee that service is available to as wide an area as possible.  Well, news out of the UK suggests that mobile phone operators are seeking partnerships to share network infrastructure with each other, in a bid to reduce operating costs:

British broadsheet The Guardian is reporting that UK cellcos Vodafone and O2 are planning to combine their network infrastructures. Talks between the two operators are reported to be at an ‘advanced stage’ and an announcement on the tie-up is expected within the next few weeks. Additionally, it is believed that Orange, which already has a network sharing agreement with Vodafone, may ask T-Mobile and Hutchison 3G UK for permission to join the two operator’s network sharing venture, Mobile Broadband Network Ltd (MBNL). All five operators, despite the rumoured link-ups, will continue using their own brand names. The sharing agreements could see a reduction in the approximately 51,000 base stations across the UK, in turn reducing operating costs for all of the cellcos.

via UK cellcos mulling network sharing agreements: CommsUpdate : TeleGeography Research.

Regulators are now faced with an even more difficult task of ensuring successful competition policy.  Still, emerging economies are offered the potential to leapfrog yet another stage of development entirely.  It might make sense for regulators to do a market analysis to see if such an agreement between operators and government would bring about successful outcomes of lowered costs to the consumer and wide availability of service.  In my estimation, avoiding the costly duplication of service should be something that is explored furhter.   Lowered initial investment expenditure and reduced operating costs would make companies more willing to deploy wireless technology quickly and more widely.

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